Difference between revisions of "Flood Forecasting"
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| − | == Flood Forecasting == | + | ==Flood Forecasting== |
Our current plans for flood forecasting involve three phases: | Our current plans for flood forecasting involve three phases: | ||
| − | # Short-term prediction | + | #Short-term prediction |
| − | # Crest prediction | + | #Crest prediction |
| − | # Flood forecasting | + | #Flood forecasting |
| − | === Short-term Prediction === | + | ===Short-term Prediction=== |
| − | By "short-term prediction", we mean extrapolating from current water levels in order | + | By "short-term prediction", we mean extrapolating from current water levels in order to predict when near-term critical events like road-crossings will happen. |
| − | to predict when near-term critical events like road-crossings will happen. | ||
| − | === | + | ===== Linear Trend Extrapolation ===== |
| − | + | * On the gage details page | |
| − | + | ** Create extrapolated readings every 15 minutes from the last reading until last reading + 6 hrs. | |
| + | ** Show extrapolated readings on chart with a different color. | ||
| + | ** If extrapolated readings cross a road (rising or falling) display a notice: | ||
| + | *** "Based on current trend, the flood water will be [higher / lower] than the road after HH:MM pm/am" | ||
| − | === | + | ===Crest Prediction=== |
| − | Long-term, we want to build a model using all of the possible inputs that might | + | We want to be able to predict crest timing at a particular gage or area based on the timing of crests at upstream gages. |
| − | have an effect on water level. Examples: | + | |
| − | * Weather forecasts | + | * For each gage build a model for each upstream gage that predicts the timing of the gage's crest based on the timing and height of the upstream gage |
| − | ** Rainfall | + | ** For example, if gage C has two upstream gages, A and B. Build two models. One that predicts the timing of the crest of C based on A and one based on B. |
| − | ** Temperature | + | * Only consider gages from USGS at the falls to USGS at Duvall |
| + | * Formalize the definition of a crest | ||
| + | ** Something like: crest is confirmed after three down readings with no up readings. | ||
| + | ** How do we handle a turbulent gage? | ||
| + | ** How do we calculate the time of the crest? First highest point? | ||
| + | * Phase I: Height independent. Calculate median time based on past data. | ||
| + | * Phase II: Try to model hight. Maybe start with simple linear fit. | ||
| + | * Gage Details page: | ||
| + | ** | ||
| + | |||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===Flood Forecasting=== | ||
| + | |||
| + | Long-term, we want to build a model using all of the possible inputs that might have an effect on water level. Examples: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *Weather forecasts | ||
| + | **Rainfall | ||
| + | **Temperature | ||
Using this model, we want to be able to try to predict water levels well in advance of flood events. | Using this model, we want to be able to try to predict water levels well in advance of flood events. | ||
Revision as of 02:50, 10 May 2020
Flood Forecasting
Our current plans for flood forecasting involve three phases:
- Short-term prediction
- Crest prediction
- Flood forecasting
Short-term Prediction
By "short-term prediction", we mean extrapolating from current water levels in order to predict when near-term critical events like road-crossings will happen.
Linear Trend Extrapolation
- On the gage details page
- Create extrapolated readings every 15 minutes from the last reading until last reading + 6 hrs.
- Show extrapolated readings on chart with a different color.
- If extrapolated readings cross a road (rising or falling) display a notice:
- "Based on current trend, the flood water will be [higher / lower] than the road after HH:MM pm/am"
Crest Prediction
We want to be able to predict crest timing at a particular gage or area based on the timing of crests at upstream gages.
- For each gage build a model for each upstream gage that predicts the timing of the gage's crest based on the timing and height of the upstream gage
- For example, if gage C has two upstream gages, A and B. Build two models. One that predicts the timing of the crest of C based on A and one based on B.
- Only consider gages from USGS at the falls to USGS at Duvall
- Formalize the definition of a crest
- Something like: crest is confirmed after three down readings with no up readings.
- How do we handle a turbulent gage?
- How do we calculate the time of the crest? First highest point?
- Phase I: Height independent. Calculate median time based on past data.
- Phase II: Try to model hight. Maybe start with simple linear fit.
- Gage Details page:
Flood Forecasting
Long-term, we want to build a model using all of the possible inputs that might have an effect on water level. Examples:
- Weather forecasts
- Rainfall
- Temperature
Using this model, we want to be able to try to predict water levels well in advance of flood events.
