Flood Forecasting - Revision history

DaveSanderman: DaveSanderman moved page FloodForecasting to Flood Forecasting without leaving a redirect: no need for WikiWords

2020-05-18T16:07:02Z

DaveSanderman moved page FloodForecasting to Flood Forecasting without leaving a redirect: no need for WikiWords

GearyEppley: /* Flood Forecasting */

2020-05-10T21:06:12Z

Flood Forecasting

GearyEppley at 20:47, 10 May 2020

2020-05-10T20:47:51Z

GearyEppley at 02:50, 10 May 2020

2020-05-10T02:50:07Z

DaveSanderman at 14:30, 31 March 2020

2020-03-31T14:30:33Z

DaveSanderman: Created page with "== Flood Forecasting Roadmap == # Get '''data''' # Forecast # Profit! === Requirements === ==== Possible Requirements ==== ==== Explicit Non-Requirements ==== === Open Qu..."

2020-03-20T22:12:00Z

Created page with "== Flood Forecasting Roadmap == # Get '''data''' # Forecast # Profit! === Requirements === ==== Possible Requirements ==== ==== Explicit Non-Requirements ==== === Open Qu..."

New page

== Flood Forecasting Roadmap ==
# Get '''data'''
# Forecast
# Profit!

=== Requirements ===

==== Possible Requirements ====

==== Explicit Non-Requirements ====

=== Open Questions ===

=== Building Blocks ===

@@ Line 4: / Line 4: @@
 Our current plans for flood forecasting involve three phases:
-#Short-term prediction
+#Short-term trend extrapolation
 #Crest prediction
-#Flood forecasting
+#Short-term forecasting
 ===Short-term Prediction===
@@ Line 20: / Line 20: @@
 ***"Based on current trend, the flood water will be [higher / lower] than the road after HH:MM pm/am"
-===== Model Based Short-term Prediction =====
 ===Crest Prediction===
@@ Line 57: / Line 39: @@
 **Show confidence interval with prediction
 **Example:
 ***Estimated crest at Gage C based on observed crest at Gage A: 5:10 pm (+/- 90 minutes)
 ===Flood Forecasting===
-Long-term, we want to build a model using all of the possible inputs that might have an effect on water level.  Examples:
+===== Model Based Short-term Prediction =====
-*Weather forecasts
+*Gage trend
 **Rainfall
-Using this model, we want to be able to try to predict water levels well in advance of flood events.
+Predict the following for each gage:

@@ Line 12: / Line 12: @@
 By "short-term prediction", we mean extrapolating from current water levels in order to predict when near-term critical events like road-crossings will happen.
-===== Linear Trend Extrapolation =====
+=====Linear Trend Extrapolation=====
-* On the gage details page
+*On the gage details page
-** Create extrapolated readings every 15 minutes from the last reading until last reading + 6 hrs.
+**Create extrapolated readings every 15 minutes from the last reading until last reading + 6 hrs.
-** Show extrapolated readings on chart with a different color.
+**Show extrapolated readings on chart with a different color.
-** If extrapolated readings cross a road (rising or falling) display a notice:
+**If extrapolated readings cross a road (rising or falling) display a notice:
-*** "Based on current trend, the flood water will be [higher / lower] than the road after HH:MM pm/am"
+***"Based on current trend, the flood water will be [higher / lower] than the road after HH:MM pm/am"
 ===Crest Prediction===
@@ Line 24: / Line 44: @@
 We want to be able to predict crest timing at a particular gage or area based on the timing of crests at upstream gages.
-* For each gage build a model for each upstream gage that predicts the timing of the gage's crest based on the timing and height of the upstream gage
+*For each gage build a model for each upstream gage that predicts the timing of the gage's crest based on the timing and height of the upstream gage
-** For example, if gage C has two upstream gages, A and B. Build two models. One that predicts the timing of the crest of C based on A and one based on B.
+**For example, if gage C has two upstream gages, A and B. Build two models. One that predicts the timing of the crest of C based on A and one based on B.
-* Only consider gages from USGS at the falls to USGS at Duvall
+*Only consider gages from USGS at the falls to USGS at Duvall
-* Formalize the definition of a crest
+*Formalize the definition of a crest
-** Something like: crest is confirmed after three down readings with no up readings.
+**Something like: crest is confirmed after three down readings with no up readings.
-** How do we handle a turbulent gage?
+**How do we handle a turbulent gage?
-** How do we calculate the time of the crest? First highest point?
+**How do we calculate the time of the crest? First highest point?
-* Phase I: Height independent. Calculate median time based on past data.
+*Phase I: Height independent. Calculate median time based on past data.
-* Phase II: Try to model hight. Maybe start with simple linear fit.
+*Phase II: Try to model hight. Maybe start with simple linear fit.
-* Gage Details page:
+*Gage Details page:
-**
+**Show prediction based on nearest upstream gage that has crested
+**Show confidence interval with prediction
-<br />
+**Example:
 ===Flood Forecasting===

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 __NOTOC__
-== Flood Forecasting ==
+==Flood Forecasting==
 Our current plans for flood forecasting involve three phases:
-# Short-term prediction
+#Short-term prediction
-# Crest prediction
+#Crest prediction
-# Flood forecasting
+#Flood forecasting
-=== Short-term Prediction ===
+===Short-term Prediction===
-By "short-term prediction", we mean extrapolating from current water levels in order
+By "short-term prediction", we mean extrapolating from current water levels in order to predict when near-term critical events like road-crossings will happen.
-=== Crest Prediction ===
+===== Linear Trend Extrapolation =====
-We want to be able to predict crest timing at a particular gage or area based on the
+* On the gage details page
-timing of crests at upstream gages.
+** Create extrapolated readings every 15 minutes from the last reading until last reading + 6 hrs.
-=== Flood Forecasting ===
+===Crest Prediction===
-Long-term, we want to build a model using all of the possible inputs that might
+We want to be able to predict crest timing at a particular gage or area based on the timing of crests at upstream gages.
 have an effect on water level.  Examples:
-* Weather forecasts
+* For each gage build a model for each upstream gage that predicts the timing of the gage's crest based on the timing and height of the upstream gage
-** Rainfall
+** For example, if gage C has two upstream gages, A and B. Build two models. One that predicts the timing of the crest of C based on A and one based on B.
-** Temperature
+* Only consider gages from USGS at the falls to USGS at Duvall
 Using this model, we want to be able to try to predict water levels well in advance of flood events.

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-== Flood Forecasting Roadmap ==
+__NOTOC__
-# Get  '''data'''
+== Flood Forecasting ==
-=== Requirements ===
+Our current plans for flood forecasting involve three phases:
-==== Possible Requirements ====
+# Short-term prediction
-==== Explicit Non-Requirements ====
+=== Short-term Prediction ===
-=== Open Questions ===
+By "short-term prediction", we mean extrapolating from current water levels in order
-=== Building Blocks ===
+=== Crest Prediction ===